Luongo to the Leafs a Done Deal?

If you believe several media members, Roberto Luongo to the Leafs is pretty much a done deal. Sportsnets John Shannon is reporting the deal has been negotiated, and both sides are simply waiting on the new CBA to be completed. Shannon says a very good source told him this news, but he doesn't know the details. Although the reported asking price may include defenseman Jake Gardiner. Gardiner, as far as previous reports on Burke are concerned, has been a non starting point in many trade talks for the Leafs. It will be interesting to see if that remained true. Personally, I believe dealing the sophomore D man would be a big mistake. Regardless of Luongos accomplishments, quality, young defenseman like Gardiner are difficult to replace. And adding Morgan Rielly in the 2012 NHL Entry Draft does not change that.

To add to the rumour mill, Bill Waters on the Fan590 tonight stated the Leafs will acquire a goaltender at the conclusion of the lockout, as well. Waters however, was not committal on who that goaltender is. But, you can conclude based on the numerous rumblings that can't but help themselves to surface, the goalie in question is Luongo.

Now don't get me wrong, Luongo is a fantastic goalie, and would definitely help the Leafs. He may even be good enough to get them into playoff contention, all on his own. But, is he worth the reported asking price Canucks GM Mike Gillis is apparently demanding? According to Damien Cox from earlier this summer, Gillis asked for four pieces from the Leafs. The four pieces included three (young) roster players from last years team, being Bozak, Frattin, Gardiner and, a future 1st round pick. Two pieces in that asking price are non starters for me (and should be for Burke). Obviously Gardiner, and almost just as important, the 1st round pick. Bozak and Frattin are one thing. Bozak being a "free wallet", cost the Leafs nothing to obtain. And Frattin, was a later round pick, who's upside still may only be that of a third line checking winger. His upside is still decent. Those are two decent, depth forwards who add to an already fairly deep forward group in Vancouver. I could see throwing in another pick, that isn't in the first round. But the baggage that comes with Luongo, the fact Toronto isn't his preferred destination, and his contract status makes him a bit of a risk, himself.

This may be nothing. Smoke, no fire. This may also be parts truth, because Burke has the opportunity to plug a serious weak spot on the roster. I'm just not convinced Burke has relented on giving up Gardiner, or high draft picks to address the goaltending issue.

I'm a nobody who writes for no one, and no reason but my own amusement. If you like what you read, follow me on twitter @LeafErikson

Playoff Prediction Rnd 2

I surprisingly went 6-2 in the 1st rnd. missing out on only the Stanley Cup Champion Bruins and, the Canucks. So, I won't feel too bad about not picking last years 2 cup finalists to get booted in the 1st rnd.

Ok, 2nd rnd picks.

East

NYR vs Caps: I'll take the Rangers in 6 games.

Flyers vs Devils: Flyers in 5.

West

Blues vs Kings: St Louis in 7

Preds vs Coyotes: Preds in 6

LE Playoff Prediction: Rnd 1.

East

NYR vs Ottawa- NY in 6
Boston vs Washington- Bruins in 5.
Florida vs New Jersey- Devils in 5.
Pittsburgh vs Philadelphia- Flyers in 7.

West

Vancouver vs Los Angeles- Canucks in 6.
St Louis vs San Jose- Blues in 7.
Phoenix vs Chicago- Coyotes in 7.
Nashville vs Detroit- Predators in 5.

My Thoughts on the "Legend" of Sid the Kid, The Leafs and other things...

Just a few thoughts...

On Sid.

So Crosby is returning, and that's great for hockey, and the Pittsburgh Penguins. But I get a little overwhelmed by the coverage that is given the worlds best player. For all he's accomplished, and it is a lot in a short career, I think many of it is severely overstated. I know that sounds like blasphemy to many fans, but hear me out. Crosby, as early as the World Juniors, and the Memorial Cup, has never been the best player in tournaments. In the 05 Mem Cup, the MVP went to Corey Perry. Come to the NHL, he has won the league MVP (which helps cement his status), the Richard Trophy, Lest B Pearson Award etc. But when it came to winning the Cup, the best player for the Penguins was the other Superstar center for the Penguins, Evgeny Malkin. The Olympics was much the same. Crosby wasn't the best player in the tournament, far from it. But, he was Johnny on the Spot for the Golden Goal. That's what people remember, that he scored THE goal. Forget that it was linemate Jerome Iginla that made it all happen or, that Ryan Miller (who was practically unbeatable) let in an absolute stinker in the winner.

I have a lot of respect for Crosby. Absolutely one of my favourite players to watch in the NHL, today. But I believe his "Legend" has been overblown by the hype from fans, and media. Twitter has not helped this. He's not in the stratosphere of legends like Orr, Gretzky or, Lemieux. And that's not to say he never will be. Hopefully when he's back, healthy, and ready to go 100%, he will have his name carved into the Conne Smythe Trophy.

Coping With The Leafs...

There's not really a lot to say here, that hasn't already been said by pretty much anyone who cares about the Leafs. Frustration is rampant, and most definitely understandable. People are either furious, sad, or just ambivalent. Burke will be going into his 4th full season at the Leafs helm next fall, and results are going to be necessary, or the "Fire Burke" chants will be the next thing raining down from the ACC crowd.

Now, don't confuse the first paragraph with my feelings towards the situation. I'm simply echoing the feelings I'm getting from the Leaf fans I encounter on twitter, and other mass messaging websites (forums). I personally feel Burke (overall) has done a good job. He's failed in some very specific areas but, I believe the team is in a lot better shape now, than it was 5 years ago.

We have the draft to look forward to, and free agency. Hopefully what will come out of this years embarassing failure of a season will be a franchise #1 Center. Or at least a very good player capable of helping this team win it all. And Burke should address the goaltending situation, one way or, another. And don't forget, Carlyle will have a chance to work on the team through the summer, where I'm sure Burke will make several moves to cater to his coaches style.

Sean Avery...

Sean Avery's career looks to be all but dead. Rumours of his retirement might be a bit premature but, I can't see any reason to believe the man has any chance of landing on a team, any time soon. In the meantime, I'm sure he can continue on with his thrilling new career in the fashion world.

Defending The GM

I won't lie, I'm a fan of Brian Burke. I'm a fan of the job he's done since he came to Toronto and, I still believe he's the right man for the job.

When Burke arrived in Toronto in the fall of 2008, he didn't have a whole lot to work with. He had very little in the way of prospect depth (Luke Schenn, and a bunch of maybes), and the pieces he had on the roster weren't likely to bring him much in the way of pieces to build with.

Now I won't go piece by piece on what he's managed to do over the time he's been with the Leafs. Or, the many mistakes he's also made. The mistakes seem glaring right now but, the truth is, all GM's make them. And not all GM's are capable of turning a "mistake" into an asset (see Lebda for Franson, Lombardi or, Beauchemin for Lupul and Gardiner).

Burkes Biggest Mistake.

Perhaps Burkes biggest mistake would be his loyalty to his friend, Ron Wilson. Wilson may have been fired last season, if not for the late run the Leafs went on. This run came mostly on the back of rookie goalie James Reimer. Hindsight, I'm sure Burke would look back at that, and wish he had not put so much stock in a hot rookie almost saving his teams/coaches season/job.

Now, on the verge of another lost season under Brian Burke, fans are starting to point the finger his way. Many are angry, feeling expectations were much too high, given the bravado in which Burke expresses what he wants for the future of the team. Fans shouldn't confuse his boisterous nature with promises broken this season. If you've listened to his message the past 3 plus years, it's been pretty consistent.

Burke Wants a Parade.

Brian Burke wants to build a winner in Toronto. But, he doesn't want to build what would be considered a "one and done" group. Meaning, he wants to build an organization that is competitive year in, year out. You can look at this as the Detroit model, if you like. Where they draft a specific type of player, and learn to play a specific type of hockey. Players that fit into the Leafs mould, and work their way up through the system. Now not every player is going to be 6'5, 220lb destroyer of worlds. There will be skill players, bangers and crashers, pick and shovel types. But everyone will fill a role. I believe if you look at his draft record over the time he's been here, it covers a lot of those bases. But 3 years isn't a lot of time to show the results of what he has done via the draft.

His Mulligan

Every GM gets at least one. The right to make at least one coaching change, to right the ship. Burke just recently made his, hiring the coach he won a cup with in Anaheim, Randy Carlyle. The people ready for his head, have to realize Burke didn't hire Ron Wilson. Ron Wilson doesn't coach a Brian Burke style game, which is why I believe it didn't work out for the two of them with the Leafs.

Carlyle is a Brian Burke coach. He will teach the young (and yes, they are very young) D corp how to play the game within his system. He will make players accountable at every level and, he won't bury guys like Wilson did, through the media.

If you look around the NHL, there are many GM's who have survived multiple coaching changes. Andy Murray in Ottawa. Doug Wilson in San Jose. Dean Lombardi has had a few guys come and go in his time. And how many coaches has Jim Rutherford (Hurricanes), Glen Sather (Rangers) and, George McPhee (Capitals) gone through in the ten plus years each of them have been with their teams?

Burke deserves at least the chance to make this work with a coach he didn't inherit. With a coach that better suits the plan he has for the Leafs.

Jonas Gustavsson: The Flake

Here's my problem with Jonas Gustavsson. The dude's a FLAKE!

It's much of the same we've often seen from "The Monster". He makes big saves, and blows the collective minds on saves no goalie has any business saving. And yet, he flakes out, and often allows a bad goal, or two a game. This explains a lot, and in why it took him so long to win a game in the league, without 4 or more goals in his favour.

On this night, he wasn't good. Three questionable goals, one of which was particularly frustrating, allowed the Penguins back into a contest in which they had zero business being in. The third goal, scored on a scramble in front of Gustavsson, could have easily been smothered, whistle blown, and a faceoff to his left. But instead of covering the puck, he attempted to casually scoop up the puck. That gave the Penguins time to keep the puck alive, and stuff it in for the 4-3. That goal made it possible for the Penguins to tie the game on a flukey goal by Malkin (deflected in off his arm/shoulder). The problem with Gustavssons poor play, is keeping a good team like Pittsburgh in a game like that, you know it will come back to haunt you.

Now I'm not completely down on Gustavsson. He has performed admirably in January and, deserves part of the credit for keeping the Leafs in the playoff picture. But I stress only part of the credit. Much of the credit should go to a Leafs penalty kill that (since December 31st), has not allowed a goal against.

Until Gustavsson can improve his focus in game, and clean up those goals that stink to high heaven, he is not a number one goalie in this league. The man has all the skill in the world but, he's just not focused enough to maintain a high level of play.

Lupul Leafs MVP?

Many would say the Leafs MVP to this point in the season would obviously go to their most gifted player, Phil Kessel. But if you're a fan who's not just looking at the stats sheet, but has had a chance to watch nearly every game, you might suggest it's not so clear cut.

Just one example from tonight, the games first goal. A soft, and I would say suspect goal, after a turnover in the Leafs zone, early in the first put the Leafs down 1-0 early. This could have been a deflating early deficit. Lupul responded not long after, and finished the night with four points.

Joffrey Lupul, once considered a salary dump in the trade that sent Francois Beauchemin to the Ducks (the trade that also gave the Leafs Jake Gardiner), has managed to surprise everyone by keeping pace w/ the teams "franchise forward", Kessel.  And in doing so, has also managed to be the leagues most consistent forward, managing at least a point in 31 of his 39 games played.

Part of what makes Lupul such an important player, and has kept him consistent this season, has been his play around, and in front of the net. For a team that has always looked for that player to stand in front, take a beating, and work for the tip in, Lupul has been the teams best player at doing so. He also can be credited w/ doing much of the yeomans work on the first line, which has seen either Tyler Bozak or, Tim Connolly as it's center. Many of that line (and Kessels) goals have come off of hard work done by the Fort Saskatchewan native.

Now I won't argue Lupul is the Leafs best player. At least not from an overall skill point of view. But, he definitely has been the Leafs most consistent player and, perhaps the teams hardest worker. And I am confident to say, the Leafs MVP to date.