My Vision of the 2014-2015 Toronto Maple Leafs

Overall, I'd have to say I'm mildly pleased with what has been accomplished by the Leafs this off season. I'm still a bit disappointed they're entering a new season with the same coach who was at the helm for the late season collapse. But, I can honestly say I do understand the decision. At least from the stand point of getting the right guy, whoever that may be. If the guy they want is not available (speculated to be either Babcock, or McLellan), then why hire a new guy if you think you may have a crack at one of your guys as early as next spring? What that tells me tho is there's a willingness to see another "building" year. And by building year, I mean another season out of the playoffs. I'm not suggesting a complete acceptance that this season is already a write off. Only that this season, if it were to be a write off, is about the best year you could choose to do it. And if you're not aware why, it's because the 2015 draft is expected to be somewhere near on par to the quality of the famous 2003 draft. And the talent at the top end, Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel, are as close to generational talent as we've seen since Tavares and Stamkos.

To continue my evaluation of the 2014-2015 Leafs, as they stand right now, I believe their chances for making the playoffs are good. Not great, just OK (sorry, Randy). The East is still the weaker little brother to the West. And in that, the chances, even if mathematically they are worse in the East, are better due to the fact there's no clear elite Eastern divide like there is in the West. Boston still remains the cream of the crop, and deserves to be spoken of in the same breath as the Chicago's, LA's, and Anaheim's of the world. But in the East, they are on an island. Maybe Montreal and New York eventually deserve that same recognition, but they'll need more than one deep playoff run to convince me (and I think anyone else who's paying attention), of that. So as it stands, I honestly don't believe the Leafs are that far off the rest of the playoff pack. And could easily be in, as much as they could be picking in the top ten again, next spring.

Line combos.

Until someone else supplants him, I don't believe Tyler Bozak is going anywhere other than the first line, with his mates James van Riemsdyke, and Phil Kessel. There's much to be desired there as a mach up for other top lines, but on a pure offensive measure, there are also few lines in the league as lethal as the Leafs "top" line. The problem with the Leafs roster as it stands right now, if the JvR, Bozak, Kessel line isn't matching up against other teams top lines, then who is? The overall lack of a match up center is a big problem for this roster. I'm not confident you can rely on Kadri for big minutes in that regard. So is a third line of Holland/Santorelli flanked by Komarov, and perhaps Clarkson going to get it done? Holland had a strong playoffs, but is yet to prove he's a capable, two way NHL center. And Santorelli is a good energy guy, decent in the dot, but asking him to match up vs the Malkin's, Crosby's, Stamkos' and Tavares' of the world is simply not fair. This is shaking up to be a big question mark coming into the 2014-2015. And something that could ultimately define the Leafs season. The overall depth at center isn't terrible. But it's not good, either. Offense shouldn't be a problem, but keeping the puck up the ice, and out of the Leafs net likely will be.

As I see it, the Lines should work out as...

JvR Bozak Kessel

Lupul Kadri Frattin/Clarkson

Komarov Holland/Santorelli Frattin/Kontiola/Clarkson

Ashton Holland/Santorelli  Frattin/Kontiola

Bodie

And, I haven't included him, but I should mention I do believe there's a small chance 1st round pick from this past draft, William Nylander, could at least see himself get into a few games, if not the whole 9 to start the season. If not, I expect he starts the year with the Marlies, and likely plays the full season with them. 

The Defense.

This is where I see the biggest improvement. Like management has said, it's not that the players are necessarily better, but the mix makes a lot more sense. Bringing in right handers Robidas and Polak has made it possible to keep kids like Rielly and Gardiner on their strong side. And, moving out Gunnarsson has opened a spot for one of the two kids to move up and play big minutes with Dion Phaneuf. I believe having a strong skating, puck carrying defenseman like Rielly or Gardiner with Dion will make his life much easier. He should spend less time in his zone defending, and more time moving the puck up ice. The big question then becomes, what of Cody Franson? He has filed for arbitration, so his future until that is done, or he signs, won't be decided. Despite managements assertion that they would prefer to keep Franson, the contrary seems to be true, due to the fact they've already attempted to move him in a deal that would have sent Montreal defenseman Josh Gorges to Toronto, had he not nixed the deal due to his feelings regarding donning the Leafs jersey (enjoy Buffalo, Josh). I suppose this doesn't mean they wouldn't consider keeping him, but they where do you play him? Other than moving Dion over to the left side, there aren't really any options. And I'm a firm believer Cody Franson is not a top pairing defenseman. So the only logical course would be to deal him. So do they deal him for another D, who could play the left side on the 2nd or 3rd pairing? Or for a depth forward/prospect or two? Or just futures in the way of a draft pick? I personally see his value as a late 1st, high 2nd round pick. I think the time to move Franson was at the draft, but I guess the Gorges trade is what probably got in the way of doing anything else regarding Franson. In lieu of adding another 2nd/3rd pairing D, I would be happy to see one of Percy or Finn get a chance coming out of camp. That would see the D shape up as...

Rielly/Gardiner Phaneuf

Gardiner/Rielly Robidas

Finn/Percy Polak

Address the need for a defenseman later, if it's clear Percy or Finn are not ready for the role. But I'm a believer in both of these young D men, and I think both are ready for the jump. Finn may benefit more from a full season in the AHL, but I don't see why Percy can't take a regular shift playing 15 or more minutes a night.

Goaltending.

I don't see anything changing here. Yes, Reimer has requested a trade, but why should the Leafs trade him? I don't believe Reimer is the type of player to make waves if he isn't dealt, so there should be no rush to make the deal until someone offers fair value. And as it stands, the options to replace him are just not very good.

Bernier

Reimer

 

As I already stated, I think this is a capable roster that is thin at center, and a bit green on defense. But overall, I think they're capable of competing in the East. I like the depth that was added to the bottom half of the lineup. Getting away from 3-4 minute a night goons will help them roll 4 lines, and add depth scoring. But the overall depth, especially at center, is one or two injuries away from Connor McDavid territory. And who knows, if the mix is wrong again, it may not matter if they stay healthy.

A Deep Marlies Playoff Run Could Breathe Life Into Leafs

Tell me if these names sound familiar. Andrej Palat, Tyler Johnson, Alex Killhorn, Tomas Tatar, Tomas Jurco, Corey Conacher, Gustav Nyquist, Danny DeKeyser, Luke Glendenning, Reilly Sheahan, Landon Ferraro. No? I would assume if you're reading this, then you're also likely paying close attention to this playoffs. And if you're a Leaf fan, you also know a big part of why those loyal to the Blue and White aren't participating in the post season is due to losses down the stretch to both Detroit and Tampa Bay. Teams which have both won the previous two Calder Cup Championships (AHL Championship), and have both seen their share of players from those teams graduate, and now are significant contributors to the success of their respective teams.

Tomas Tatar hoisting the Calder Cup for Grand Rapids (AHL)

The Marlies begin their post season in the Friday vs the Milwaukee Admirals. And what Leafs management should be hoping for almost more than anything else is a nice, long run, and (if they get a bit lucky) a championship. There's a pretty good correlation between AHL success, and development. We see that in recent history with Detroit and Tampa Bay, and if we look back over the years with teams like Binghamton (Ottawa) Colin Greening, Patrick Weircoch, Erik Condra, Eric Gryba, Zack Smith, Robyn Lehner. In 2007 Carey Price lead the Hamilton Bulldogs to a championship as a rookie. The 2004-05 Philadelphia Phantoms, who may be possibly the best example of success breeding success has a list of names that fit with the who's who of today's NHL stars. Names such as Patrick Sharp, Dennis Seidenberg, Jeff Carter, and Mike Richards. All of which played a significant role in winning the Calder Cup.

 Josh Leivo will be looking to help push the Marlies deep into this seasons playoffs, 

starting this weekend vs Milwaukee.

It's a no brainer to say the Leafs prospects need the experience of playing in the playoffs. What isn't so obvious is the positive impact a prolonged run, and even better, a championship can have on the overall talent level of their parent club. The trickle up affect it can have on even next years roster could be huge. Especially for kids like Granberg, Leivo, McKegg, Carrick, MacWilliam, D'Amigo and Percy. All of which have a legitimate chance at vying for a roster spot with the Leafs this fall.

And there's no reason to think the Marlies can't have a significant run. They won their division (again). They have a decent amount of veteran presence. Their depth in goal is good. And they have one of the more potent back ends with AHL D man of the year TJ Brennan patrolling the point. The talent is there, but the experience may be a little on the thin side. But hey, that's why they plays these games. And it's not like these kids aren't aware of the occasion. They've been doing this almost every spring since they were kids.

I would love to hear some feedback. You can comment on my blog page. Or if you prefer, tell me how you feel about anything Leafs thru my twitter account @LeafErikson

Just A Few Thoughts.

I haven't done this in some time, so I'm going to just start off by stealing a page from Eliot Friedman. But instead of 30, I'm going to post like 3 or 4 thoughts.

1. The Shanahan Hiring.

I didn't know what to think of this to start with, honestly. Sure, I'm open to the idea, mostly because at this point, what can it hurt? The Leafs have gone the inexperienced rout before with JFJ. Tho not a good outcome when it came to doing what his boss asked him to do (make the playoffs now), he did have some success in the draft. And, supposedly, he wanted to rebuild earlier than was eventually started under Burke. But that's neither here nor there, we're here to talk about Shanahan. And back to Shanahan, he doesn't have experience as a GM. But, he does have league executive experience. And he's watched a crap ton of games over the last 4 years. He also has I'm sure a decent repertoire with his peers, I am sure. So why not? Who's to say we can't catch lightning in a bottle with the Irish lad from Mimico? And he seems to be more open minded toward advanced metrics than his subordinates. So that should give that little part of the hockey world/Leafs Nation some piece of mind. Or at least a reason to breathe.

2.  Coaching.

I'm positive Carlyle is done. Tho, unlike a lot of people who will probably read this, I don't wholly blame Randy for what happened. I won't start outlining why I like him as a coach, so I'll end this with simply that it's probably the right choice to have him move on.

As to his replacements, I have a few in mind.

One, Barry Trotz. The man has had a long career already, coaching 15 years for the Nashville Predators. He has had his ups and downs with that club. But one thing he always had in Nashville seemed to be the ear of his players. And a system that had them regarded as a stifling defensive team.After watching this team, especially this season, it seems like Trotz is exactly the coach these players need. Not all of these players, mind you. Clearly there needs to be some changing of the guard at the player level, too.

Two, Kevin Dineen. Here's a guy I think got wrongly blamed for the failures he had in Florida. An under funded roster, young, and weak in goal. Disinterested veterans who are there, like many people in their twilight, to simply watch their remaining years go by without much fuss (like a playoff berth would be). And it's not like their fortunes improved after firing Dineen. Florida still managed to be pitiful enough to wind up drafting 1st overall this June. Dineen meanwhile, took over as head coach of the Womens Hockey team for the Olympics, and won gold. This is a smart coach, who when given the talent, has been successful. He coaches a strong, high pressure game. He wants the puck on his players sticks. Advanced stats guys should have a hard on for a coach like Dineen. The only question I have is with how he approaches his players. But Dineen was a widely respected player. And from what I can tell, the same is true as a coach.

Lastly, Kirk Muller. Muller has been coaching in Carolina for the past three years, and now is waiting on word of his future with the team. There have been reports lately he may be let go. If he is, he makes my short list for coaching candidates. This is a smart guy who is known to be a players coach. Tho this season has seemed that reputation has gotten away from him. This is a guy who was by all accounts, a difficult man to play against. He was both a goal scorer, and a hard working role player. So surrounding him with players like Alexei Semen, and the Staal boys (both of which I am not a fan of), who seem to be interested in their off season more than holding off on tee times, and a goalie who seems to be trying to find himself since 2009, and you have a problem even the worlds best coaches would have a hard time fixing. And that's to say nothing of their defense. But he's a guy who, when his message is getting across, knows what he's doing. This is also a guy Shanahan knows well. So it's safe to say, if Muller became available, I'm sure he's getting a phone call.

Honourable mention to guys like Peter Laviolette, Dave Lowry (former teammate of Shanahan), Travis Green, Steve "Stumpy" Thomas who is an assistant in Tampa.

3. Adding the Big Piece.

Part of me wants them to take a patient approach this summer. The other side of me says "screw that", it's time to go get something shiny. And if any of the rumours are even the slightest bit true, Shanahan and co. had best be pumping and kicking all of the tires on Shea Weber. This is a bonafide, top two or three defenseman in the world, and has been for some time. This is a game changer for the Leafs. As big as Chara going to Boston, or Thornton to San Jose. This is a guy who, almost on his own, makes the Leafs a contender. This is no slight to Dion Phaneuf, who I think is a great player in his own right. But Weber is just that much better. I'm not going to throw out trade proposals, because I find no matter what, you always end up looking rather stupid. But I will say, there isn't really anything on the current roster I would't include. I would have a very difficult time seeing a kid like Rielly go, because what he will be is so unknown *mystery box*. However, common thought seems to be it would be very difficult to match anything the Flyers might offer. If that's the case, I'm happy to move on with whatever plan Shanny may have. But imagine, Shea Weber... It would be difficult not emptying the wallet to make that happen.

That seems to be all I have for tonight/today. Hopefully you enjoyed my rantings. Even if you didn't, I would love to hear why not. So comment, either here, or on twitter.

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@LeafErikson